He was pulled in the sixth with two on and one out, and Seth Maness came on to relieve him.  He gave up two consecutive RBI singles to make it a 4-2 game.

He stayed in the game.  Not necessarily a bad move on Mike Matheny‘s part since everyone else in the bullpen had been somewhat used up after a starting pitching slump.  But where Math went wrong was when, yet again, he had no one warming up in the bullpen just in case.  And it looked as if it was going to cost him.

Three straight singles opened up the eighth inning.  Superprospect Jean Segura got a crummy breaking pitch at arm-level, but he tried to do too much with it and ended up popping out.

Up comes Ryan Braun, one of the very best hitters in the world.  Maness works the count full including a foul strike that was entirely inside the zone.

But Mike Matheny’s stupendous luck would not be denied, and as Trevor Rosenthal hurriedly warmed in the ‘pen, Braun grounded into an inn in-ending double play.

> Maness pitched today because, before the game, the Cardinals decided on Tyler Lyons to be their replacement for Jaime Garcia in the rotation.  I didn’t even include him amongst the longshots in my list of possible replacements yesterday because he’s just been bad in the minors both this and every year.  Here are his minor league numbers compared to the average MLB starter this year:

If the Cardinals are right about their revised expectation on Jake Westbrook‘s return date (which would be a pleasant surprise), he should be back next Thursday and Lyons should only get two starts, the first of which is against the Padres and the second of which is against the Royals.

> The Cardinals evidently know something about Kyle Lohse that no one else does.  He’s got a 5.00 ERA against them and a 3.16 against everyone else.  The FSN broadcast team noted that there was on on-field exchange between Lohse and the dugout, which might have something to do with the differential.

It’s a 4-4 game in the seventh inning, and Matt Adams just grounded into an inning-ending double play to complete an 0-4 night.  The pitcher’s spot is due up next inning, and since Adams is eight slots away and the Cards only need one run, Math opts to take him out via a double switch that puts Alen Craig at first, Carlos Beltran in right and hitting in the pitcher’s spot and makes Trevor Rosenthal the new pitcher, hitting where Adams did.

The idea was to cram as many deadly hitters into the eighth and ninth as possible, which is all fine and good and a move I would actually sign off on had Trevor Rosenthal actually stayed in the game for the ninth inning.  But he didn’t.  Which makes me wonder why a double switch is even necessary. Why not just pinch-hit Carlos Beltran and keep Matt Adams in the game if Rosenthal is going to be finished anyway?

For a while it looked like the double switch might line up enough good hitters against one bad pitcher (John Axford) for this bizarre tie-game managerial move to not even matter.  David Freese, Pete Kozma and Beltran all went down in the eighth, but in the ninth, Matheny’s two leadoff men went down before Matt Holliday doubled.

Up came the king of timely hitting, Allen Craig.  Keep in mind Axford, a relief accident waiting to happen, is pitching.  He struggles badly with his control throughout the inning, and ends up walking both Craig and Yadier Molina right after him.

And here is where the double switch runs off the tracks.  What was formerly Matt Adams’ slot in the lineup is now the pitcher’s spot; and Daniel Descalso is the only left-hander on the bench.

Axford couldn’t hit the zone before or during Descalso’s at-bat.  But nobody told Descalso that.  Axford threw five pitches, none in the strike zone, and struck Descalso out to leave the bases loaded.  Joe Kelly then poetically gave up two runs in the top of the tenth; and that was that.

> The team announced this afternoon that Jaime Garcia has been placed on the disabled list after his rough start last night; and all signs point to him needing surgery.

To replace him on the 25-man, Mitchell Boggs has been called up from AAA.  Boggs, of course, was the lowest lowlight of the team’s disastrous early-season bullpen; and the numbers he put up during the course of his minor league stint indicate that he didn’t solve whatever problems he was having.

Boggs’ promotion means two things.  One, the Cardinals’ organizational bullpen depth has been entirely used up.  Two, Michael Wacha is probably not going to replace anyone on the Major League team.  John Gast, Seth Maness, Carlos Martinez and today Boggs have all gotten the call before him because the Cardinals know bad things happen when prospects are rushed.  Theoretically, since Wacha just started, Boggs could simply be a placeholder until he’s fresh and ready to make a start, but just like with Oscar Taveras, there’s no need to risk potential long-term problems in order to bandage the team with the best record in Baseball.

So who does replace Garcia?

Seth Maness, probably.  We’re dealing with small sample sizes here, but he’s done better this year than the other starters who presently find themselves in the bullpen.

Martinez was called up somewhat hurriedly out of necessity, and the team may still be skeptical of his being in the Majors anyway, let alone him starting several months before they intended him to be a Major League rotation option.

Joe Kelly has just been bad this year; and while Trevor Rosenthal has hit his stride in the bullpen, his lapse earlier in the year exposed his lack of pitch type diversity–something you can’t be carrying with you to the mound for six straight innings.

Then there’s always Chris Carpenter in early June, though it’s probably best to tamper any expectations for how good a pitcher he’ll be coming off what was thought to be a catastrophic injury.

Whoever his replacement is, they’ll be the third rookie in the rotation along with Shelby Miller and John Gast, whose start against the Brewers on Sunday should come with a reasonable degree of anticipatory angst.

And as if matters could get any worse, the Cardinals’ best record in Baseball is only good for a two and a half game lead on the Cincinnati Reds, who are presently beating the Phillies.  Those same Reds will be getting their ace Johnny Cueto back from the Dl on Monday.

Godspeed to Jaime in his recovery.  His team will miss him.

Fernando Salas is one such whipping boy.  According to more sophisticated measurements of performance, Salas has been a solid reliever ever since he came up in 2010.  But after a season in which he finished with a 4.30 ERA, four losses and three blown saves, he has developed an unfair reputation as a bad pitcher.

A simple camera shot of him warming in the bullpen is enough to induce mass angst online, so I decided to compare Fernando to the average MLB reliever this year and see if we might be overreacting just a little bit here.

Salas is no Craig Kimbrel, but he’s clearly an above-average reliever and in no way as awful as he’s made out to be.  Ideally he could get some more grounders, but he averaged a strikeout per inning in his career before this year, and it’s reasonable to assume that that will return to normal as the season goes on.  And in the meantime, though he’s been cursed with having almost twice as many inherited runners as the average MLB reliever, he’s still walking guys much less than the average reliever and is giving up fewer hits as well.

A lot of his season stats are hurt by his first outing of the year against the Diamondbacks as well.  If you were to factor that one game out, Salas’ ERA shoots down to three and his opponent’s average goes down to .204.

In my years of writing I have failed to make much of a dent in the more ridiculous political views of Cardinal Nation, but there it is in black and white.  Fernando Salas is not a bad pitcher and certainly not this gas can many make him out to be.

Jaime gets a disproportionate amount of crap on his off days, but it’s important to keep in mind that he was beat by one of the best-hitting third basemen alive and that even after giving up six in less than six innings his ERA is three and a half.

> Peralta was indeed very bad; and the highlight of his bad day was David Freese‘s first homerun of the year–a grand slam in the first inning.

For a guy who came into today with only ten fly balls all year, it was a much-needed left-up pitch, and he did hat he was supposed to with it.  But given the location of the pitch and the guy who threw it, we can all be happy for Freese but at the same time acknowledge that this doesn’t mean that Freese is out of his downward stretch.

> John Mozeliak broke his streak of not giving any more timetables regarding injuries when he said that Jake Westbrook‘s shoulder inflammation was minor and would only cost him two starts.

He will miss three starts.

> The Cardinals did an in-ballpark poll regarding which hats the team should wear and when, which was hilarious.

> Friend of the site Bernie Miklasz breaks down the Cardinals’ recent woes against lefties that we discussed on here yesterday.

–Written before today’s game.  Molina caught Ryan Braun stealing today with Trevor Rosenthal on the mound–

> I like to poke fun at Cards fans on Twitter during games when, as one loud, incontrovertible voice, they declare that one would be mad to dare try and steal a base on Yadier Molina.

While Molina is one of the better guys in modern history at controlling the running game, the fact of the matter is that there have only been eleven guys* in history whom, over the course of their careers, it was statistically improbable that you were going to make it to the next base, and Molina isn’t one of those.

When I bring up the fact that Molina has allowed twelve stolen bases this year and only caught six, his fans are quick to blame the pitcher on the mound for the spike.

While I think they would say this whether it was true or not, it is true that the success or failure of a stolen base attempt is based on a combination of the pitcher, catcher and baserunner.  So it’s only fair to break down all three elements to see why steals against the Cards are up this year, even on Molina’s watch.

*Minimum 200 steal attempts.

CATCHER

Like I said earlier, Yadi is great at what he does.  He’s led the National League in Fangraphs fielding every year of his career in which he had qualified playing time.

His career caught stealing percentage is 45%, which is fantastic.  But this year 67% have made it on.  So is this a defensive slump on his part, or are one of the other two elements forming a perfect storm?

RUNNERS

Here are the career stolen base success rates prior to this year for all the guys who’ve stolen a base off Molina this year.

Carlos Gomez: 130-32 (80%)
Gerardo Parra: 166-54 (75%)
Hunter Pence: 64-21 (75%)
Norichika Aoki: 12-5 (71%)
John Mayberry: 9-4 (69%)
Kurt Suzuki: 36-17 (68%)
Ian Desmond: 17-9 (65%)
Starling Marte: 19-11 (63%)
Eric Young: 67-39 (63%)

That’s a lot of really fast and really smart guys.  And that helps put this little mystery in perspective since only really fast and really smart baserunners are going to try their luck on Yadier Molina.  The average team this year has seen 29 stolen base attempts; and the Cardinals have only seen 21.

PITCHERS

Here are the stolen base success rates in the careers of each Cardinals starting pitcher prior to this year.

Shelby Miller: 72%*
Jake Westbrook: 69%
Jaime Garcia: 69%
Adam Wainwright: 58%
Lance Lynn: 52%
Bullpen: 67%**

And here are their numbers this year.

Shelby Miller: 5 steals, 0 caught (100%)
Jake Westbrook: 2 steals, 2 caught (50%)
Jaime Garcia: 1 steal, 1 caught (50%)
Adam Wainwright: 0 steals, 2 caught (0%)
Lance Lynn: 1 steal, 0 caught (100%)
Bullpen: 3 steals, 1 caught (75%)

Shelby obviously stands out.  Take away Miller’s five stolen bases and Molina’s caught stealing percentage goes from 33% back over his career average to 54%.  He was also on the mound during Tony Cruz‘s only two steals allowed this year.

His minor league caught stealing percentage looks ugly, but looking at the stolen base numbers in the leagues he was in, it’s obvious that baserunning is almost completely out of control; which I guess is a product of guys still learning how to do something that I imagine is incredibly hard to do.  It also didn’t help that Miller never had one catcher in the minors who was particularly good at holding runners on.

At any rate, it would appear that Miller is responsible for Molina’s tainting stolen base track record so far this year.  It’s going to be interesting watching throughout the rest of the season to see if this trend continues; assuming he lets anyone on base again this year.

*Minor league numbers; no attempts in 2012

**Mitchell Boggs, Edward Mujica, Fernando Salas and Joe Kelly, the only relievers on whom steals have been attempted this year

So it’s important to keep that in mind; but the Cards were still only able to put two runs up on Niese in seven-plus innings, one of which was let in by a reliever.

They eventually lost 5-2 after another off day from Adam Wainwright; which isn’t great news given that the Reds’ Mat Latos is facing the Miami Marlins tonight.

> The “Cardinals struggle against lefties” motif resurfaced as the game progressed and the Cardinals kept failing to score, but it’s important to note that most of that sentiment is left over from 2009.

Averages against lefties (MLB rank)
2008: .269 (13th)
2009: .233 (30th)
2010: .258 (13th)
2011: .265 (8th)
2012: .276 (3rd)

I’ve been hearing about how the Cardinals struggle against lefties ever since I started EM.  But the number show that just isn’t the case.  They aren’t doing well against them this year (.228), but as we can see from the numbers above, there’s no reason to expect that to continue all season long.

 > Allen Craig is having a very weird season.  He’s got the second-highest RBI rate in the Majors to Miguel Cabrera going back to last year; and has 30 RBI in 38 games this year.  So far he’s averaging an RBI every five at-bats.

That’s good, but it’s also somewhat expected since Craig is so good.  But is he that good?  After all, he’s slugging .435 (for scale: he slugged .552 last year, and the MLB average was .404.).

So how his he doing this?

For one, his opportunities are legion.  Craig hits cleanup for the Cardinals, whose one, two and three hitters have a combined on-base percentage of .354.  That’s really good, and as a result Craig gets more RBI opportunities than most guys.  46% of the times he’s come to bat this year, there has been at least one man on in front of him (MLB average 42%).  27% of the time, there’s at least one man already in scoring position (MLB average 24%).

That’s definitely helping, just like it did last year during Craig’s insane RBI escapade.  That year he drove 92 in in 119 games with the help of having the same ratios of men on (46%) and men in scoring position (27%) already there for the pickings.  (MLB averages were the same as this year as well.)

And Craig isn’t just getting lucky with the number of runners on in front of him.  He’s also getting lucky on balls he’s hitting into play.  The league average on balls in play (BABIP) is usually about .300, and Craig’s career average is .333.  But for Craig this year, it’s .345.  When a guy’s BABIP is that high, it means he’s having an incredible stroke of luck and is due to regress back to normal.

My point here is not to make Allen Craig out to be a sheerly lucky hitter because he’s not.  He’s hitting clean-up in one of the best lineups in the world for a reason.  He is undeniably getting an easy break so far this year, but he’s also making the most of that luck and hitting .400 with men in scoring position.

My point here is simply for the reader to keep in mind his high BABIP and that, while he is indeed a good hitter, his RBI count is not an accurate measure of how good a hitter he is.

But all his work was for naught when Seth Maness gave up a game-tying bomb to former Cardinal Rick Ankiel in the seventh.  It was an awesome moment, but it also meant the Cards were in some trouble.

With two outs in the eighth, Pete Kozma singled and advanced Daniel Descalso to third.  Up came the pitcher’s spot and, presumably, Mike Matheny‘s lefty weapon Matt Adams.  Mets manager Terry Collins acted accordingly, bringing in a left-handed reliever.

But Adams never came out.  Nor did the resting Yadier Molina or even David Freese, who also sat today.  It was none other than Ty Wigginton.

The move was fairly questionable.  Collins’ lefty was Scott Rice, who is phenomenal against left-handers and phenomenally bad against right-handers; but Wigginton is still Wigginton; and that shouldn’t be forgotten just because of a  savvy baserunning play that started when his double bounced out of a glove that didn’t even belong to the fielder wearing it.

In a tie game, you have two right-handed all-stars on the bench and a man on third in a tie game.  If Math was really committed to giving those two days off, I guess I could see his side of it.  (Though, in the eighth, you naturally run the risk of extra innings.)  But Molina came in in the ninth to pinch-hit when the Cardinals already had a lead.  Very odd.

But, because God favors Mike Matheny, the move worked anyway.  A wild pitch led to Descalso scoring from third, and it ended up being the game-winner.

> You’d have a very difficult time of convincing me that Wigginton would out-hit Matt Adams against lefties over the course of a full season.

> The Cardinals have now won twice as many as they’ve lost.

Things got messy in the sixth after all four Mets runs scored and Gast was pulled afterward even with only 71 pitches; but it was overall a successful outing for him.  His fellow call-ups Seth Maness and Carlos Martinez followed with two more scoreless innings, and Joe Kelly finished it off.

The offense certainly did its job, going off on Mets starter Dillon Gee and his bullpen.  Carlos Beltran continued to go berserk with a 3-5 day with his tenth homer.  Final was 10-4.

> Given how well he did in the minors, I could be wrong here.  But I think Gast was a benefactor of the No One Has Seen Me Before Effect as well as the Mets’ sheer offensive ineptitude.

That pitch count is insane because Gast was going right after the Mets hitters.  Obviously when so many of them can’t hit you can get away with that, but let’s just say that after today’s start, I’m glad he’ll be going down for more seasoning after his upcoming start against the less-forgiving Milwaukee Brewers.

> So last night I’m flipping between games and end up on Dodgers-Nationals in LA.

The game is, for all intents and purposes, over.  It’s the beginning of the bottom of the fifth, the Nats are up 6-0 with their stud Jordan Zimmermann on the mound against what has been one of the very most feeble offenses in the Majors this year.

The first batter of the inning hits one deep to right, and rightfielder Bryce Harper charges after it.  But he either doesn’t know how close to the wall he is or is simply ignoring how close he is out of bravado.  The result: Both he and the ball slam into the rightfield wall.

The runner ended up with on third to start the inning and of course later scored.  Harper appeared to be unconscious for a few second after impact and was taken off the field with a lacerated neck.  This morning we found out he’ll be day-to-day with shoulder and knee injuries.

Harper is lauded throughout the Game as a guy who, even with all his exceptional talent at an exceptionally young age, still gives it his all on the field.  It’s a sentiment that Harper himself has come to agree with, evidently, since he tweeted this afternoon, “I will keep playing this game hard for the rest of my life even if it kills me! Ill never stop! #RespectTheGame.”

This is a part of baseball culture that is not only just plain stupid but also irresponsible to perpetuate.

Harper is the best player on a team that finds itself in a divisional dogfight with the hard-hitting Atlanta Braves.  It’s a race that could come down to the wire, and they need Harper playing in every game he can.

Harper has been and will continue to be lauded for his effort in the field.  But in reality, what he did was just plain stupid.  Had he been responsible out there, he would’ve let the ball bounce off the wall, the runner only would’ve made it to first or second and Harper can finish this game as well as play in the rest of this week’s games.

In a sense, Harper was disrespecting the Game and his team by being so brazen.  While I watched that play, I couldn’t help but think of Ken Griffey Jr.  Everyone has seen those amazing catches in centerfield where he’d slam violently into the wall to get the out.  But in the end, that is still just one out. And when we think of Griffey, we think of how great he was at the beginning of his career and what might’ve been had he been able to stay healthy.

I don’t want to see Harper or anyone end up like that.  Whether it’s a ball hit to the warning track or a popup into the stands or whatever, there are never outs that are worth causing possibly long-term damage to yourself.  Trading the oak for the acorn isn’t inspiring.  It’s dumb.  The culture needs to change.  Guys should go hard when they’re not near a wall.  But when they are, it’s time to stop going hard and start going smart.

Three in the second.  Lance got himself into trouble in the second with two walks and left one up to David Wright, so he’s not entirely out of the woods when it comes to blame-placing for the resulting double.  But Wright’s hit into right field should have been caught.  Given that this was a nationally televised game, a 6:00 start time meant Carlos Beltran was looking right into the sun, and the ball went right by him.  Had he caught it, Lynn wouldn’t have given up a run all night and would’ve saved eight pitches.

Lynn was able to induce a two-out grounder to short right after, but substitute Daniel Descalso botched it entirely, leading to another run.

We were only reminded here that Descalso is not a shortstop–he’s simply the only middle infielder available to fill in for Pete Kozma on off days.  PCL player of the week Ryan Jackson is killing it in AAA and is a natural shortstop who used to play exclusively at second base; which Descalso is also not very good at.  However, calling him up would mean sending Descalso down, which would mean Matt Adams is the only lefty on the bench.  The Cardinals’ $5 million obstruction, of course, is preventing both from being on the team.  Though Ty Wigginton was far from a parasite tonight.

The game was tied at three in the seventh.  Both starters had gotten shot up in the first two innings yet remarkably dragged themselves past the sixth inning mark; Lynn himself going seven with a career-high124 pitches.  He was obviously done, and Wigginton came up to hit for him.  He punched one to deep center, where it bounced off a diving Rick Ankiel‘s glove.

(Yes, Rick Ankiel.  The Mets signed him hours before game time and he made it to St. Louis in time to keep his career going.)

Wigginton took advantage, deciding that the ball was far enough away from the best outfield arm in Baseball to charge toward second: right towards Ankiel.

Wigginton’s judgement paid off, and he slid safely into second before Ankiel could lock on.

Matt Carpenter was up next, and he hit a single off the pitcher’s shin, which catcher John Buck recovered.  Wigginton saw the chaos and again decided to go for it.  He rounded third and made it home, where no Mets were covering.  A Matt Holliday homer later in the inning sealed the Mets’ fate.

Garcia gave up five in six, and in the meantime, his offense got its own taste of a no-hit threat as they went hitless for six and a thirds innings.  By the time the ninth rolled around it was an 8-0 game, but the bench guys were at least able to piece together a couple runs to make it look like some semblance of a fight was put up on this day.

> Jon Jay of course went hitless in his first two at-bats and was one of the regulars pulled when things got ugly, but he did have a double today, and I think he’s now earned back his leadoff privileges.

Back when Jay was struggling but still the established leadoff man, I proposed that Matt Carpenter should get the job instead because he wasn’t getting on base as much as Carpenter and it’s not like either is discernibly faster than the other.  It is for the same reason that I think Jay has proven himself worthy of going back to the one-slot.

Now it’s true that Jay doesn’t walk much, and more walks out of him would be nice wherever he is hitting, but he was walking relatively as much as Carpenter this month before today’s game (8% v. 10%), this year (7% v. 9%) and in his career (7% v. 10%).  So really, that isn’t much of a factor either.

But hits get you on base too, and Jay is hitting better than Carpenter at the moment.  He’s hitting .400 this month, almost exclusively in the lower part of the order.  Meanwhile Matt Carpenter is hitting .343 this month almost exclusively from the leadoff spot.

With such a small sample size, one good day could make the difference in averages negligible, but the point is that Jay is hitting like his usual self and at the moment better than Carpenter.  And when you’re talking about two left-handed guys with identical speed and career on-base percentages, you’re basically talking about the same player when discussing which should bat leadoff.

The key difference between the two, of course, is power.  Carpenter was slugging .446 coming into today and Jay was at .388.  Most of Carpenter’s power manifests itself in doubles (12), which can be used as both a tool for him to drive in more runs or be driven in more.

Matheny has a few different ways he can go here.  Assuming both keep hitting like they have throughout their careers, he basically has two leadoff men; one of which has doubles power.  He can 1) hit them consecutively at the top of the order, 2) combine Carpenter’s on-base and double-hitting abilities to set the table for his lineup or 3) put Jay’s on-base ability at the top of the order and slot Carpenter in with the other power hitters.

I would recommend against moving Beltran out of the two-slot since that is where most RBI opportunities fall, but it would appear Jon Jay is back to normal, leaving Matheny with a slew of options.

> Jake Westbrook was placed on the DL with out-of-nowhere elbow inflammation.  John Mozeliak downplayed the significance of the injury, and in the meantime John Gast will replace him in the rotation.

Gast has out-performed even Michael Wacha in AAA this year.  He has an organizational low 1.16 ERA over 38 2/3 innings, has struck out 35 compared to just 13 walks and has an opponent’s average of .214.

And he almost did.  For seven innings, it looked like Wainwright might out-do his predecessor having not allowed a single runner save a walk in the fifth.  But with one out, rookie Nolan Arenado and his .217 batting average looped a single into center.

Wainwright would give up one more in the ninth after Mike Matheny let him finish the job, but in the end that’s just what he did; leaving the Rockies–the highest-scoring offense in the NL to date–with 54 outs, three hits and one walk at the hands of only two pitchers.

The starting rotation was already statistically the best in Baseball, but now the cat’s out of the bag.  The whole league now knows what they’re dealing with: a rotation with a 2.11 ERA, an ace who has somehow gotten even better after returning from Tommy John surgery, a fifth starter who may be the best prospect in the Game, and in between some of the very best pitchers in the Majors so far this year.